Salient to Investors: Jim O’Neill said: We are closer to a buying opportunity in emerging-market stocks than to joining in the panic. While some places in the emerging world have real problems, to herald an emerging-market crisis is ridiculous. Ukraine, Thailand, Argentina and Turkey have some serious issues. The Fed decision
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Leland Miller and Craig Charney at China Beige Book Intl said China’s economy slowed this quarter and demonstrates that the conventional wisdom of a renewed, strong economic expansion is seriously flawed. Their data reveal weakening gains in profits, revenues, wages, employment and prices. The official pickup spurred
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Jim Chanos at Kynikos Associates said: He is unconvinced by China’s improving economic growth and is maintaining bearish bets on the nation’s banks. If you grow new credit by 30 percent to 40 percent of GDP a year, it is not difficult to reach the government’s expansion
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Asia’s role as the world’s growth engine is waning as economies across the region weaken and investors pull out billions of dollars in favor of nascent recoveries in the US and Europe. Economists forecast Malaysia will post its second straight quarter of sub-5 percent growth this week.
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Jim O’Neil writes: In April, the BRICS said they would build their own development bank. Their difficulty in cooperating is simply because they are not very alike. Brazil, Russia, India and China are the world’s largest emerging economies, while China is bigger than all the others put together – China effectively
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Sudakshina Unnikrishnan and Jian Chang at Barclays say should China’s growth dip to 3 percent in the next 3 years, copper would fall more than 60 percent, zinc by up to 50 percent, and oil to $70 a barrel. They cite risks of slowing industrial production and of financial stress due to debt of
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Jim O’Neill writes: Too much of the world’s trade and finance is conducted in dollars. The exorbitant privilege has lasted too long. It is time one or two of the emerging-market governments did something about the US’s ability to borrow in its own currency – an advantage the rest
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: 10-year Treasuries yield 2.61 percent versus the S&P 500 aggregate earnings yield of 6.4 percent – more than double the average spread of 1.9 points since 2000. Investors are avoiding longer-term Treasuries, concerned that returns will be depressed for years, and money managers foresee the end of a rally that
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Jim O’Neill writes: Emerging-market gloom is overdone. I disagree with the view that as the US recovers, the global cost of capital will rise, holding back investment, that avoiding the next crisis is the best that most emerging economies can do. India could teach the pessimists a lesson. India
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Jim O’Neill said: The US is returning to normality so expect 10-yr T-yields to rise toward 4 percent in the next couple of years as the 30-year bull market in bonds comes to an end. There will be quite ugly days. The global economy is in the early stages of
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