Salient to Investors:

Jim O’Neill writes:

  • Emerging-market gloom is overdone. I disagree with the view that as the US recovers, the global cost of capital will rise, holding back investment, that avoiding the next crisis is the best that most emerging economies can do.
  • India could teach the pessimists a lesson. India is on track to grow its workforce by 140 million between 2000 and 2020 – equivalent of the working population of France, Germany, Italy and the UK combined.
  • Even with unspectacular growth of just over 6 percent a year, India’s economy could be 40 times bigger by 2050 than it was in 2000, as big as the US economy will be. Growth of 8.5 percent is possible, and 10 percent over the next 15 to 20 years is not out of the question.
  • India scores poorly on productivity measures, worse than Brazil, China and Russia. To change that, it needs to improve its governance, fix education, adopt an inflation target, introduce a medium to long-term fiscal-policy framework, increase trade with its neighbors, liberalize financial markets, innovate in farming, build infrastructure, and protect the environment.

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