Salient to Investors: Viktor Shvets and Chetan Seth at Macquarie said: Emerging markets and economies are in a worse situation than in the 1997 Asian financial crisis because they now face far longer, more painful and insidious disease with limited or no cures or exits, punctuated by occasional significant flare-ups. The effect
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Dan Matjila at The Public Investment Corp. expects betting on developing South Africa’s power generation, roads, banks, communications and education will boost its economy and improve investment returns. Matjila said increasing investments in developmental projects, such as renewable energy, and in the rest of Africa would increase
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Investors are abandoning emerging economies, good and bad, for the US. Morgan Stanley said Brazil, Indonesia, India, South Africa and Turkey are the Fragile Five – all with large deficits, slowing growth and vulnerable currencies. Argentina is generally credited with starting the general panic after playing fast and
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley said: The Fed’s near-zero interest rate and QE is holding down US bond rates, meaning the US Treasury yield curve would struggle to invert, crimping its effectiveness as an indicator of business cycles. Yield curve inversion signals investors are betting on weaker
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Nouriel Roubini at NYU said: There has been a global recovery in the last year with the US recovery and reduced tail risks of a eurozone breakup and a hard landing in China. The US economy recovery is very fragile, with barely 2% GDP growth expected in
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Jim O’Neil writes: In April, the BRICS said they would build their own development bank. Their difficulty in cooperating is simply because they are not very alike. Brazil, Russia, India and China are the world’s largest emerging economies, while China is bigger than all the others put together – China effectively
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Fed tapering, China’s credit squeeze, and Japan’s reflation ultimately prime the three biggest economies for less volatile and longer-lasting expansions, but near-term, emerging markets, commodity producers, and economies that need cheap cash or weaker currencies, including the euro area, could suffer. Stephen Jen at SLJ Macro Partners said that
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Alexander Friedman at UBS says: What Fed has done is not unexpected and the market reacted because it was ahead of itself. All the Fed was saying was that the US is doing OK, that the data is trending as it should, and that it has confidence
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Shane Oliver at AMP Capital Investors said he was not worried until this week because things are much different in China than expected and potentially pose risks for global growth. Oliver said we relied on the Fed and China so much over the last few years that
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Shane Brett at AllAboutAlpha writes: The long-term outlook for the US economy is broadly positive with housing stabilized, consumer confidence slowly returning, political instability solved by Obama’s decisive win, and as health spending increases under Obamacare. Cheap domestic energy will continue and the US will seriously expand
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