Salient to Investors: The IMF predicts G-7 nations will tighten policy in 2014 by the least since they began in 2011 – at half this year’s pace as the average budget shortfall drops to about a quarter of where it was just 3 years ago. Jose Ursua at Goldman Sachs
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Nouriel Roubini at NYU said: There has been a global recovery in the last year with the US recovery and reduced tail risks of a eurozone breakup and a hard landing in China. The US economy recovery is very fragile, with barely 2% GDP growth expected in
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Robert Shiller said a housing bubble is emerging in Brazil as home prices have risen as much as twice the increase in rent prices, and housing bubbles are brewing in emerging markets including China, Taiwan, India, Russia, Colombia, Canada and Hong Kong. Shiller said Brazil prices doubling
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Jim O’Neil writes: In April, the BRICS said they would build their own development bank. Their difficulty in cooperating is simply because they are not very alike. Brazil, Russia, India and China are the world’s largest emerging economies, while China is bigger than all the others put together – China effectively
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Stretched budgets and sluggish growth are putting emerging-market governments on a collision course with rising pressures from recently empowered middle classes for more spending and better services. Policy makers face the end to an era of abundant global liquidity that helped fuel the fastest expansion in three decades. The
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Economists call Brazil’s plans to defeat the its worst inflation threat in a decade too little and too late. Roberto Luis Troster at Delta Consulting said it will not work because the central bank waited too long to act, while inflation has its own dynamic as producers are
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: In Q1 2013, BRIC bonds, currencies, and stocks fell together for the first time since 2006. Since 2003, the MSCI BRIC Index has returned 227 percent, but is down 17 percent in 2013 and trailing the S&P 500 by the most since 1998. The MSCI BRIC Index
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Jankiel Santos at Banco Espirito Santo de Investimento said emerging markets will now have to compete for capital with the US, and countries that carried out the necessary adjustments will suffer less, while Brazil will suffer more. Ilan Goldfajn and Caio Megale at Itau expect the Brazil
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Fed tapering, China’s credit squeeze, and Japan’s reflation ultimately prime the three biggest economies for less volatile and longer-lasting expansions, but near-term, emerging markets, commodity producers, and economies that need cheap cash or weaker currencies, including the euro area, could suffer. Stephen Jen at SLJ Macro Partners said that
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Alexander Friedman at UBS says: What Fed has done is not unexpected and the market reacted because it was ahead of itself. All the Fed was saying was that the US is doing OK, that the data is trending as it should, and that it has confidence
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