Salient to Investors: The IMF predicts G-7 nations will tighten policy in 2014 by the least since they began in 2011 – at half this year’s pace as the average budget shortfall drops to about a quarter of where it was just 3 years ago. Jose Ursua at Goldman Sachs
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: A Bloomberg poll of investors, analysts and traders showed: 40% see the euro-area economy as improving, more than 4 times the number in May 40% see the world economy as strengthening, the most since January 2011. 52% expect stocks to produce the best return over the next
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Nouriel Roubini at NYU said: There has been a global recovery in the last year with the US recovery and reduced tail risks of a eurozone breakup and a hard landing in China. The US economy recovery is very fragile, with barely 2% GDP growth expected in
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Bloomberg Editors write: 59 percent of Greeks, 56 percent of Spaniards, and 38 percent of Italians and Portuguese ages 16-24 were unemployed in March 2013. It is already clear that Europe’s “New Deal for Europe,” is no “New Deal”. The scale is still too small as millions
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Fareed Zakaria said: The data is increasingly convincing that the Keynesians have been right, cutting spending in the kind of recession we have gone through will only hurt growth not help it. But spending on its own is not enough. For sustained growth in the long-term, countries
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Doug Short at Advisor Perspectives writes: Statistics says that 99.7% of all daily movements should fall within three standard deviations of the mean, but Deutsche Bank research shows that three standard deviation movements are not as rare – some instances, like the 2008 financial collapse, happen over 25% of
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Peter Oppenheimer at Goldman Sachs said: Quantitative easings have left little value in the credit markets, so investors should look for returns in European equities over bonds. The STOXX Europe 600 could see annual returns of more than 7 percent despite stagnation in the euro area. Because of a net absence
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Former IMF deputy managing director John Lipsky said: Efforts to rescue Greece have failed to provide the basic structural reforms needed. The austerity measures are exacerbating economic pain and won’t found a lasting recovery. Little is being discussed about the truly seminal issue of progressive loss of competitiveness in
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Mohamed El-Erian at Pimco said: Superstorm Sandy won’t reduce GDP as there is likely to be catch-up activity. There is a 60 – 70 percent probability of a mini bargain over the fiscal cliff – with contraction of 1.5 percent of GDP, which is manageable.” There is a 60 – 70 percent probability that Greece will quit the
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Gary Cohn at Goldman Sachs says: There is a small probability that the euro area will stick together, and it’s more likely that some countries will exit to pursue growth. The ECB program hasn’t addressed the lack of growth – Europe still needs a “Lehman moment”. Southern Europe has no
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