Salient to Investors: Joseph Stuber writes: Stocks could reach the all-time high on the S&P of 1576 in 2013 driven by its momentum, but then the market will broadly sell-off to October 2011 lows of 1074. A correction to the 2009 low of 670 is possible on pure fundamentals, given
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Stuart Hoffman at PNC Financial Services said a little dip doesn’t take the momentum away, and for the first time in a while it’s as much a sellers’ market as a buyers’ market. Hoffman expects prices and sales to continue to rise in 2013. Lawrence Yun at NAR said the only concern
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Doug Short at Advisor Perspectives writes: Statistics says that 99.7% of all daily movements should fall within three standard deviations of the mean, but Deutsche Bank research shows that three standard deviation movements are not as rare – some instances, like the 2008 financial collapse, happen over 25% of
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: RealtyTrac said Florida had the biggest increase in home seizures in 2012, and the highest foreclosure rate – 1 in every 32 Florida households received a notice of default, auction or repossession versus 1 in 72 for the nation. Robert Tayon at Barclays said Arizona dealt with their problems, whereas
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Royal Bank of Scotland said sales of CDOs linked to property are poised to climb to as much as $10 billion in 2013, 10 times the level of 2012 as investors wager on a real estate recovery and the Fed pushes down borrowing costs. Richard Hill at RBS said the deals could
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Jonathan Miller at Miller Samuel said the median monthly rent in Manhattan rose 0.8 percent from a year earlier, the third consecutive month around 1 percent, versus an average of 7.4 percent for the year through September. Miller doesn’t expect the same rapid ascent seen over the last year and
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Jonathan Gray at Blackstone said the market is moving much faster than anybody thought possible, and housing is much stronger than people anticipated. Blackstone is buying in Atlanta, Chicago, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Northern and Southern California; Miami, Orlando and Tampa, Florida, through foreclosure auctions and short sales. Anthony Paolone at JPMorgan said the home
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: The era of increasingly cheap money is showing signs of ending in the mortgage bond market. Bill Gross at Pimco said bond investors should anticipate reduced returns as bets on mortgage securities are over in terms of the capital appreciation – expect total returns in 2013 of 3 to 4 percent. Brean
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Deepak Narula at Metacapital Mgmt said the Fed’s mission is to drive down the 30-year mortgage rate to let homeowners refinance. Narula uses mathematical models to calculate how long homeowners will make payments at their current interest rates before either refinancing or defaulting – models based on a homeowner’s
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Lumber prices through Dec. 28 have risen 47 percent in 2012, heading for the biggest annual gain since 1993. Paul F. Jannke at Forest Economic Advisors expects lumber futures to tumble as much as 25 percent from a 7-yr high due to output increases in Canada. Scotiabank says lumber
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