World Economy in Best Shape for 18 Months, Poll Shows – Bloomberg 11-29-12

Salient to Investors: Andrea Guzzi at IST Investmentstiftung fuer Personalvorsorge said the global economy is recovering and healing, thanks to the US and the emerging markets – more people are becoming wealthy, less and less are poor. Guzzi said many countries have oversized banking sectors. Gala Prada at Fiatc Mutua de Seguros y Reaseguros expects

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Fiscal Cliff Avoided in Poll Seeing Market Gain Deal – Bloomberg 11-28-12

Salient to Investors: In a Bloomberg global poll of investors: 75% expect a short-term agreement to avert the fiscal cliff, 6% expect to go over the cliff and into a recession. 40% expect financial markets to rise after a short-term tax-and-spending deal, 28% see no significant market reaction, 26% say markets would fall. 7% see no sweeping accord, 50%

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Does the Housing Sector Really Help Grow GDP? – Bloomberg 11-28-12

Salient to Investors: Housing doesn’t change the trajectory of the economy because it has contributed only 2.5% of US GDP after before the recession. Before the recession housing peaked around 6% and the average is in between.  Watch the video at http://www.bloomberg.com/video/does-the-housing-sector-really-help-grow-gdp-NnDP7KDpRC60tTIrJlj7_w.html

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U.S. Fiscal Cliff Could Lead Global Recession, OECD Says – 11-27-12

Salient to Investors: The OECD said: Failure to prevent the fiscal cliff would increase the risk of a global recession. The greatest threats to the world economy lie in the euro area, whose debt crisis urgently need fixing. Reducing the large federal budget deficit is necessary to restore fiscal sustainability, but should be done gradually

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Cyber Monday Likely to Be Biggest Online Shopping Day in U.S. History – PBS Newshour 11-26-12

Salient to Investors: Nancy Koehn at Harvard said the boundaries between brick and mortar and online, and between channels is blurring. Koehn said we don’t yet know if online sales adds up to incremental, organic growth, but consumers are much smarter and much more adaptable. Nariman Behravesh at IHS said the consumer is in a very good mood because income growth is

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Speculators Raise Wagers First Time in Seven Weeks: Commodities – Bloomberg 11-26-12

Salient to Investors: Hedge funds et al increased combined net-long positions for the first time in 7 weeks. James Paulsen at Wells Capital Mgmt sees many reasons why we are turning the corner, and says growth in the US and China supports being in commodities. Societe Generale said Chinese manufacturers are seeing the light at the

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Home Equity Loans Make Comeback Fueling U.S. Spending – Bloomberg 11-26-12

Salient to Investors: Moody’s forecast home equity lines of credit will rise 30 percent in 2012 to the highest level since the start of the financial crisis in 2008, and rise another 31 percent in 2013. Mustafa Akcay at Moody’s Analytics said lending will keep rising if house prices continue to rise. The Mortgage Bankers Association forecast

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Fed’s Dudley Signals a Shift Toward Bank Reform – Bloomberg 11-25-12

Salient to Investors: Simon Johnson at MIT Sloan School of Mgmt writes: William Dudley at FRB New York made it clear that 1) too big to fail remains with us. 2) The completed first round of living wills – potential liquidation plans by major financial institutions – has been unsatisfactory and 3)  The legal mechanisms for an FDIC-managed

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