Salient to Investors:
Andrea Guzzi at IST Investmentstiftung fuer Personalvorsorge said the global economy is recovering and healing, thanks to the US and the emerging markets – more people are becoming wealthy, less and less are poor. Guzzi said many countries have oversized banking sectors.
Gala Prada at Fiatc Mutua de Seguros y Reaseguros expects QE4 or more asset purchases if the economy doesn’t improve.
Christian Thwaites at Sentinel Investment says US companies have better profit potential, balance sheets and access to capital.
In a Bloomberg global poll:
- Two-thirds of investors see the global economy as either stable or improving. the most since May 2011.
- The US offered the best opportunity over the next year for the eighth straight quarter, China ranked second, and the EU offering the worst returns.
- Over 1 in 3 forecast say equities offer the best returns in the coming year, with real estate second, and bonds offering the worst returns.
- 75% expect the Fed to begin outright purchases of Treasurys after its plan for swapping short-dated securities for longer-dated ones expires. 40% expect the Fed to continue QE3 into 2014.
- 70% expect large banks to reduce payrolls further in the next year, citing regulatory changes.
- 75% expect a short-term agreement to avert the fiscal cliff. The OECD says the world economy would go into recession if the US fails to act.
- Near 50% of investors plan to increase equities over the next 6 months, while more than 50% expect the S&P 500 to will rise during the period.
- More than 60% say housing values will be higher in six months.
- 12 percent see commodities as the best-performing asset class over the next year versus 18 percent in September.
- 48% intend to reduce T-bonds over the next 6 months, while 50% say Treasuries are safer than AAA-rated corporates.
- Over 40% say EU markets offer the least opportunities over the next year, 23% say Japan, 17 percent say the Middle East.
- 40% are less likely to put money into Egypt.
- 50% don’t expect a military strike against Iran in 2013.
Read the full article at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-29/world-economy-in-best-shape-since-2011-investors.html