Salient to Investors: Joseph Lupton et al at JPMorgan said: The US economy will grow 3% in Q3 and into 2015, while China growth will be below its 7.5% average of the past 8 quarters. The US is mostly the dog that wags the tail: each 1% change in US
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Hertta Alava at FIM Asset Mgmt said Hong Kong is usually very safe so the riots are unexpected, while Russia’s economy is getting weaker. Dmitry Polevoy at ING said the market is getting closer to panic, while the ‘ghost’ of peak external debt payments in September and
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: The slump in commodity prices to a 5-year low signals investors are cautious about the strength of the global economy. Brent crude touched a 2-year low last week and iron ore at Qingdao is the lowest since 2009. Economists expect China to grow 7.4% in 2014, the weakest
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Dariusz Kowalczyk at Credit Agricole CIB said the surprising Flash PMI rebound is a major relief to markets after numerous signs suggesting further downward pressure on manufacturing and should put upward pressure on Asian currencies and rates. Qu Hongbin at HSBC said overall the data still point
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Fareed Zakaria said the IMF says India and China were similar sized in the 1980s yet China has gone from 2% of global GDP to 16% in three decades. Zakaria said India is poor, has a young, vibrant population and an extraordinary private sector, but over-regulation strangles growth.
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Centaline said a wait-and-see attitude is still prevalent among homebuyers Donald Yu at Guotai Junan Securities said there is still room for prices to go down further as the policy easing only increased the number of people qualified to buy, not the number of those able to as mortgages remain
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: UBS said it will take a deeper slowdown to spur an interest-rate cut and still expects growth to be below 7% in Q4. Wang Tao at UBS said the bias is toward more but relatively measured easing and growth will slow further in Q4 on further property construction weakness.
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Barclays said 47% of China’s wealthy are planning to move abroad within 5 years, versus 23% in Singapore, 16% in Hong Kong, 20% in Britain, 6% in America and 5% in India. 78% named bettering children’s education and their future job prospects as their main reasons, 73% said a better
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Naoki Kamiyama and David Cui at Merrill Lynch said: China is weaker than it appears, resembles Japan in 1992, and may enter an asset-deflation phase. China’s imbalanced growth, government stimulus, overcapacity, overwrought housing market, and severely under-capitalized financial system may be a more serious problem than Japan’s was in the
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Since 2011, online investors since 2011 have helped drive a 50-fold increase in financing through peer-to-peer websites, and are turning to property as falling home prices prompt China to ease curbs aimed at stamping out speculation. China is trying to revive local-government revenues at the risk of
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