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Archive for the Major Trends Category

Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 11-01-15

Salient to Investors: Fareed Zakaria said: Most transitions to democracy bring bitter struggles, viz South Korea, Taiwan, Chile. Tunisia is almost entirely Sunni so has no sectarian and tribal differences and has had wise political leadership. The end of China’s one-child policy was an admission that its greatest obstacle to long-term economic

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Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 10-04-15

Salient to Investors: Fareed Zakaria said: Russia’s move in Syria is a desperate effort to shore up one of its only foreign allies and risks making it the great Satan with jihadists everywhere. However, Putin has at least a clearer strategy in Syria than Obama. An US army of less than

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Looking for the lifeboats – The Economist 09-19-15

Salient to Investors: Both equities and government bonds are overvalued but are unlikely to fall in tandem. Long-term investors should ignore short-term market declines because over the long-term, asset prices rise – US equities overcame the dotcom bubble and 2008 financial crisis to reach record highs in 2015. However, equities could be

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The zero rate trap – The Economist 09-18-15

Salient to Investors: No Fed tightening was a sensible decision. The Fed is in a trap: low interest rates have raised global equity markets, whose collapse in August helped in preventing the Fed from raising rates. Most British homeowners have variable rate mortgages so while interest rate cuts staved off a potential

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Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 09-13-15

Salient to Investors: Fareed Zakaria said: China’s economy is nearly 2.5 times that of Japan so even if growth slows substantially, China will continue to have seismic effects on the global economy. Henry Kissinger said Republican candidate China-bashing is dangerous and could create an atmosphere a la Europe before WW

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Advice After Stock Market Drop: Take Some Deep Breaths, and Don’t Do a Thing – The New York Times 08-21-15

Salient to Investors: Stocks are most useful for long-term goals so it does not make sense to change your investment strategy based on a blip (sic) of market activity. There is absolutely nothing abnormal going on in the market. Research shows that long-term portfolio performance suffers badly by missing just a few days

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Birinyi Says You Can Toss Out the Old Tools for Calling S&P 500 – BloombergBusiness 08-05-15

Salient to Investors: Laszlo Birinyi said: The market is now so dominated by institutional investors, hedge funds and service industries, that sentiment drives prices more than anything else, so predictions based on valuation data going back a hundred years are bound to fail. Recent developments in Amazon, Google, and Chipotle clearly show

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The Curse Of The Euro: Money Corrupted, Democracy Busted – David Stockman’s Contra Corner 07-17-15

Salient to Investors: David Stockman writes: Germany has set fire to the Eurozone in order to save it. Lending another $96 billion to a bankrupt country makes no sense, while the fiscal targets set for Greece are ridiculous. Greece has a de facto public debt of $400 billion vs. $200 billion of GDP. Within days the

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Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 06-14-15

Salient to Investors: Fareed Zakaria said: The cold war between Russia and the West over Ukraine is worsening. Saudi Arabia will not build a nuclear weapon whatever happens with Iran’s nuclear program because it cannot – oil is 44 % and manufacturing less than 10% of GDP. Saudi Arabia could not

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The Warren Buffett Economy – Why Its Days Are Numbered (Part 3) – David Stockman’s Contra Corner 06-11-15

Salient to Investors: David Stockman writes: The ratio of finance to GDP has risen to 540% vs. the historic norm of 200%. Central bank driven bubble finance since the late 1980s has resulted in the GDP deflator-adjusted value of corporate equities and credit market debt outstanding rising 8 times, while real median household

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