Salient to Investors: A. Gary Shilling at A. Gary Shilling & Co writes: There is an important distinction between good deflation caused by excess supply – as after the Civil War and in the 1920s – and bad deflation created by deficient demand – as in the 1930s and Japan over the last
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Paul Farrell writes: We are at a market top and an economic turning point. Bernanke’s non-stop cheap-and-easy-money printing presses are loved by Wall Street banks but are bad for the rest of America. His reappointment – certain to become Obama’s greatest domestic blunder – so shocked Nassim Taleb
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: A. Gary Shilling at A. Gary Shilling & Co writes: The current fiscal and monetary offsets to the powerful deflationary forces are temporary. When deleveraging ends and normal economic growth resumes, the Fed will be forced to eliminate the huge excess reserves. General price deflation is the likeliest
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: The MSCI World Index rose 5 percent in January, the most since 1994, on individual investor inflows, US profits, interest rates at record lows, and improving growth from Europe to China. The Index rose 6.4 percent at the start of 1994, and GDP increased 7.7 percent that year, and rose
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: A. Gary Shilling at A. Gary Shilling & Co writes: Investor zeal for yield and disregard for risk favors the junkiest of the junk. When the grand disconnect between investor focus on the immense liquidity created by central banks and weak and weakening global economies becomes unsustainable, probably
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: A. Gary Shilling at A. Gary Shilling & Co writes: In periods of prolonged economic pain, international cooperation gives way to an every-nation-for-itself attitude, including competitive devaluations. Decreasing the value of a currency, by creating and selling unlimited quantities, is much easier than supporting it, by selling
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Gary Shilling at A. Gary Shilling & Co writes: Long-term India will emerge as the more significant global economy than China. About China: Much of its growth before 2008 came from a shift in global manufacturing from Europe and the US, and not by domestic-oriented activity. Its economy remains export-driven – consumers account
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Investors can’t get enough government securities even though rising debt loads are blamed for curbing global growth. For the first time since 2008, all 26 markets tracked by Bloomberg and the EFFAS are poised to generate positive returns on an annual basis. Governments are getting a handle
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Gary Shilling at A. Gary Shilling & Co writes: Investors’ zeal for yield has: Depressed yields and spreads of below-investment-grade debt versus Treasuries so much that it now takes real skill to default. The global recession will hype defaults even though many low-rated companies have a cushion of safety from
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Charles Comiskey at Bank of Nova Scotia said the market is finding its bottom and becoming a range trade again – there’s no change in the big picture. Brian Barry at Investec said the economic backdrop is weak and sees no sustainable improvement in economic indicators. Gary Shilling at A. Gary Shilling & Co said
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