Salient to Investors: 48 of the 67 companies reporting earnings exceeded analysts’ estimates S&P 500 earnings are expected to exceed $1 trillion in 2013, 31 percent more than when the index peaked. The S&P 500 P/E is 9.8 percent below the 6-decade mean. Analysts predict S&P 500 earnings will rise 8 percent
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Doug Short at Advisor Perspectives writes: Statistics says that 99.7% of all daily movements should fall within three standard deviations of the mean, but Deutsche Bank research shows that three standard deviation movements are not as rare – some instances, like the 2008 financial collapse, happen over 25% of
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Commodity speculators increased net-long positions last week by the most since Nov. 27. Barclays says investors increased commodity holdings by $20.4 billion in 2012 versus $14.6 billion in 2011. Suki Cooper et al at Barclays said palladium will be the best performing precious metal in 2013 as supplies tighten and demand
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: William Cohan writes: Robert Rubin’s fingerprints on Jacob Lew is a grave concern. Rubin was one of the leading purveyors of irresponsible behavior that led to the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008. Robert Strauss taught Rubin two important principles about politics – money is the mother’s milk and
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Sy Harding says we are in the 8th inning of economic recovery. The economy and stock market face one more setback, created by the belt-tightening austerity measures necessary to bring down the record government debt level. The next set-back won’t be as severe, in part due to
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Gold looks poor technically but its fundamentals of robust investment and central bank demand remain intact. Gold will be supported by the US political standoff about the debt ceiling and expectations of continual quantitative easing. A lack of trust regarding central bank gold reserves could lead to
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Nicholas Pardini at Nomadic Capital Partners writes: US and European stocks are no longer the safest bets. Investors should expect subpar real returns from the US economy and positive long run returns from emerging markets. The biggest economic trend of the 21st century is the global convergence of
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: 5-yr inflation is at 1.9% annual, its lowest since the 1960s. The Atlanta Fed sees a 6% probability that the CPI for April 2017 will be lower than the CPI for April 2012. Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlatoka said inflation will run below the Fed’s target of
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Economics Fanatic writes: The top 100 banks in the U.S. had an 88% market share in Q3 2012 versus 84% in 2010 – if this trend continues, the next banking crisis will be bigger than the 2008-09 crisis. Excessive risk taking is predominant in these institutions. Regulators
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Laurence Fink at BlackRock said investors will continue to put money into passive stock products rather than active funds as they get back into equities. Fink expects the economy to pick up in half2 2013. US stock mutual funds attracted $14.8 billion in new money last week, the most
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