U.S. Fiscal Cliff Could Lead Global Recession, OECD Says – 11-27-12

Salient to Investors: The OECD said: Failure to prevent the fiscal cliff would increase the risk of a global recession. The greatest threats to the world economy lie in the euro area, whose debt crisis urgently need fixing. Reducing the large federal budget deficit is necessary to restore fiscal sustainability, but should be done gradually

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Cyber Monday Likely to Be Biggest Online Shopping Day in U.S. History – PBS Newshour 11-26-12

Salient to Investors: Nancy Koehn at Harvard said the boundaries between brick and mortar and online, and between channels is blurring. Koehn said we don’t yet know if online sales adds up to incremental, organic growth, but consumers are much smarter and much more adaptable. Nariman Behravesh at IHS said the consumer is in a very good mood because income growth is

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China’s Stocks Drop Below 2,000 as Trading Value Hits 2008 Low – Bloomberg 11-26-12

Salient to Investors: Wang Zheng at Jingxi Investment Mgmt said investors have no confidence in long-term growth prospects and the government is doing little to reverse the situation. The Shanghai Composite trades at 9.5 times estimated earnings for 2012, versus the 17.7 average multiple since 2006. Chongkyu Juhn at Samsung Securities said China’s stocks

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Speculators Raise Wagers First Time in Seven Weeks: Commodities – Bloomberg 11-26-12

Salient to Investors: Hedge funds et al increased combined net-long positions for the first time in 7 weeks. James Paulsen at Wells Capital Mgmt sees many reasons why we are turning the corner, and says growth in the US and China supports being in commodities. Societe Generale said Chinese manufacturers are seeing the light at the

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Home Equity Loans Make Comeback Fueling U.S. Spending – Bloomberg 11-26-12

Salient to Investors: Moody’s forecast home equity lines of credit will rise 30 percent in 2012 to the highest level since the start of the financial crisis in 2008, and rise another 31 percent in 2013. Mustafa Akcay at Moody’s Analytics said lending will keep rising if house prices continue to rise. The Mortgage Bankers Association forecast

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Goldman Turns Down Southern Europe Banks as Crisis Lingers – Bloomberg 11-26-12

Salient to Investors: Goldman Sachs turned down roles in offerings by banks in Spain and Italy in 2012, the only top US securities firm to avoid the fundraisings by southern European lenders. Last month, Gary Cohn at Goldman saw only a small probability that the euro area will stick together, and Goldman equity strategists warned investors

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Fed’s Dudley Signals a Shift Toward Bank Reform – Bloomberg 11-25-12

Salient to Investors: Simon Johnson at MIT Sloan School of Mgmt writes: William Dudley at FRB New York made it clear that 1) too big to fail remains with us. 2) The completed first round of living wills – potential liquidation plans by major financial institutions – has been unsatisfactory and 3)  The legal mechanisms for an FDIC-managed

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India Pledges to Cut Deficit, Cap Debt to Avert Downgrade – Bloomberg 11-25-12

Salient to Investors: Credit Agricole CIB said markets are pricing in an increasing likelihood that India’s credit rating will be cut to junk status. The median economist predicts Q3 GDP will increase 5.3 percent from a year ago. Sajjid Chinoy and Jahangir Aziz at JPMorgan expect full-year growth through March 2013 to be 5.6 percent, and 6 percent the following

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Can the U.S. Create Its Own German-Style Energy Revolution? – Bloomberg 11-23-12

Salient to Investors: InsideClimateNews.org writes: In Phoenix, swimming pools outnumber solar panels by a thousand to one. Germany, with half the sunlight of Arizona, has four times as much solar power installed per capita. and 23 times more than the US. The primary reason for the renewable energy gulf between the US and Germany

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