Salient to Investors: Saumil Parikh at Pimco said: Global growth will slow to 1.3 percent to 1.8 percent from 2 percent in 2012 as the private sector isn’t healthy enough to step in and extend credit amid deleveraging. The average economist expects growth of 2.5 percent in 2013. Central banks are effective
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Mary Brinton at Harvard said Japan suffers from a play-it-safe mentality which focuses more on potential downsides rather than on opportunities. Brinton and Toshio Yamagishi at Tamagawa University say the breakdown of the lifetime employment system may be the main anxiety that leads people to play it safe – there’s still a prejudice against hiring
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Professor Koichi Hamada said the BOJ’s efforts to end decades of deflation are very weak, as is its policy of buying short-term government bonds. Instead it could buy foreign bonds and debt with longer maturities, and increase purchases of REITs and ETFs. Any inflationary concerns could be eased by raising interest rates. Hamada said the
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff said: the economy is stuck in the mud and it will be a wageless recovery – the fiscal cliff would trigger a recession. Housing is bottoming out. and banking is on the mend and banks are more willing to lend money. likes gold-mining stocks and utilities, dividend-paying healthcare, utility and consumer-staples stocks. likes
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Jeffrey Gundlach at DoubleLine Capital says: The first phase of the coming debacle was the 27-year buildup of corporate, personal and sovereign debt to 2008. The third phase will be deeply indebted countries and companies defaulting sometime after 2013. Buy gemstones, art and commercial real estate and other hard assets. Chinese
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: The median economist expects: Britain to fall 0.1 percent in Q4 and grow 0.2 percent in Q1 2013; and the UK economy to fall 0.1 percent in 2012 and rise 1.1 percent in 2013. Germany to fall 0.1 percent in Q4 and rise 0.2 percent; and rise 0.3 percent in both
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Jim O’Neill writes: Nothing has materially changed by the US election and the Chinese leadership handover. The positive surprise in Korean exports in October indicates a pick up in world trade. Japan reported its first seasonally-adjusted current account deficit following other generally grim economic news. It is
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Masaru Hamasaki at Toyota Asset Mgmt said: Investors expect further BOJ stimulus but are also losing hope that big enough steps will be taken. Japanese shares are outperforming versus overseas markets because the yen’s strengthening trend has eased. The 2 percent growth of US GDP was certainly good as the headline,
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: It’s unlikely the leaders will allow any escalation into open conflict. Richard Samuels at MIT said the conflict is due to domestic political considerations as the whole region is roiling amid uncertainty over leadership. Samuels says there is always the danger of miscalculation which is why Japan patrols with
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Men’s wages are growing faster than women’s in China. Japan and South Korea have famously thick glass ceilings. China has an estimated 20 million to 30 million surplus men, and India is not far behind. In the 2020s in China and northwest India, marriageable men will outnumber marriageable females by 15 to 20
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