Salient to Investors: Chad Morganlander at Stifel Nicolaus said the market is fairly valued at best and will require an improving economic and earnings outlook well above where we stand. S&P say the S&P 500 has not fallen more than 10 percent since October 2011, the longest stretch without such
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: The S&P 500 Index return in 2013 is tracking day-to-day price moves in 1954 almost identically – a correlation coefficient of 0.95. In 1954 the S&P 500 rose a record 45 percent to reach a new high for the first time since 1929. Jim Paulsen at Wells
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: James A. Kostohryz writes: Stock valuations are currently within or even slightly above a broad range that could be considered “normal” and not at bubble levels, but unprecedented levels of excess liquidity, declining liquidity preference, and a number of fundamental, technical and psychological indicators strongly indicate a bubble is forming. Probabilities favor
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Matthew Crews at Smith Patrick Financial Advisors writes: The combination of a high CAPE valuation and above-trend earnings is bearish. Either earnings growth will rebound, or more likely market valuations will compress. The market expects a strong rebound in earnings in half2, 2013. More likely is downward
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Jeremy Grantham at Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo says: The US is muddling through reasonably well in the short-term, but long-term we are in a slowdown unappreciated by most economists – because they are not interested in the long-term. US growth won’t ever return to previous levels because
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Michael Holland at Holland & Co. said earnings outperforming estimates is generally supportive for stocks, and the growing global economy bodes well. 75 percent of the 341 S&P 500 companies that have reported Q4 results have beaten estimates. The S&P 500 is at 14.96 times earnings versus the 16.61 average since 1954.
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: John Manley at Wells Fargo Advantage Funds said valuations are far from excessive. Analysts expect S&P 500 Q4 profits to increase 2.9 percent. The VIX has fallen 40 percent over the past 6 sessions, the biggest decline since November 2008. Michael Riesner and Marc Mueller at UBS said the bull
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Profit margins had their first 12-month contraction since 2009 leaving investors increasingly dependent on economic growth to boost stocks. Bears say stagnant profitability accompanied recessions in 2000 and 2007. Bulls say housing and employment data indicate an accelerating economy and valuations are low. Russ Koesterich at BlackRock said margins collapse when
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Masaru Hamasaki at Toyota Asset Mgmt said: Investors expect further BOJ stimulus but are also losing hope that big enough steps will be taken. Japanese shares are outperforming versus overseas markets because the yen’s strengthening trend has eased. The 2 percent growth of US GDP was certainly good as the headline,
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