Salient to Investors: Analysing what parts of the market have lots of ground to make up to reclaim highs is a good way to gauge how much more the market can rise or fall. The NYSE Arca Airline Index is 59 percent below its peak. The S&P 500 Information Technology
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: The value of equities globally is at a record $66 trillion versus $25 trillion in March 2009 and $63 trillion at the 2007 peak. The US stock rally is approaching the dot-com bubble in terms of speed, but not in valuations – at 16.8x estimated earnings versus 26x at
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: The market looks more and more like the dot-com bubble market except for valuations: 19x now versus near 30x then. Widespread gains now compare with the concentration in computer shares back then. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index has risen at an annualized 28% rate since 2009,
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Robert Shiller at Yale said stocks and bonds are highly priced and may be joined by real estate. Jeremy Siegel at Wharton expects the bull market to continue, possibly reaching Dow 18,000 or higher by the end of 2014. Siegel said bull markets climb the wall of
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Barry Ritholtz writes: Rarely have conditions for market gains been so promising at a time when investor psychology has been so negative. Only 7% in a Gallup poll were aware of the S&P 500’s 30% increase in 2013, while more than 50% would put new cash into
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Todd Salamone at Schaeffer’s Investment Research said the Fed raising rates sooner than expected is still a big ‘if.’ The S&P 500 has not had a decline of 10 percent in almost 3 years and trades at 17.8 times reported earnings, near the highest level since 2010.
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Few businesses are large enough to merit Warren Buffett’s attention. Berkshire Hathaway spent a third of the total from a year earlier on equities in half1 2014, while sales of stock more than doubled. Buffett dislikes paying a dividend and rarely buys back shares. David Rolfe at Wedgewood Partners said Buffett’s list
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Pundits calling for a huge decline in equities are either the absolutely certain types, who have stuck to their prediction for years, and the less media-savvy academics and heads of research at big investment firms who see a decline but after the market goes higher. The last
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: David Kostin, Kathy Matsui, Peter Oppenheimer et al at Goldman Sachs lowered their rating on stocks to neutral and corporate credit to underweight on belief that global equities and bonds may drop in the next 3 months, and stocks may temporarily fall, as rising inflation boosts government bonds and
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Russ Koesterich at BlackRock said volatility is very low because monetary conditions are easy but when investors see the US and UK central banks tighten then we will get a long-awaited rise to normal levels, but not to those of 2008 with the VIX at 90. Pimco expects a new
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