Salient to Investors: Jeremy Siegel at Wharton said: The start of tapering in September is already baked into bond and stocks prices and won’t stop stocks rising to between Dow 16,000 and 17,000 by year-end and 17,000 or more in 2014 as long as earnings continue to beat expectations at
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: 10-year Treasuries yield 2.61 percent versus the S&P 500 aggregate earnings yield of 6.4 percent – more than double the average spread of 1.9 points since 2000. Investors are avoiding longer-term Treasuries, concerned that returns will be depressed for years, and money managers foresee the end of a rally that
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Bill Gross at Pimco said: The Fed will not taper with unemployment rising to 7.6 percent and very dire metrics for the average work week and wages, but a more normal economy requires the Fed to raise interest rates to more normal levels because QE and low interest rates are distorting capital
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Mohamed El-Erian at Pimco said the inherent momentum of the US economy is still weak so the Fed may increase its efforts to support the economy following a meeting tomorrow by changing the narrative away from the Fed taking its foot off the accelerator. Kei Katayama at Daiwa SB Investments is below
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Bill Gross at Pimco said: The economy will grow no more than 2 percent in 2013 even with one or two quarters of faster growth. A 2 percent new normal economy is the best we can expect. The impact of energy and housing will be limited to one or two quarters at
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Mohamed El-Erian at Pimco said: The Fed’s record monetary stimulus has forced central banks from Mexico to Brazil to Korea to Japan to follow suit as artificially low US interest rates has put upward pressure on several currencies, threatening the competitiveness of their economies. Central banks are carrying
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Mohamed El-Erian at Pimco said: Europe may contract 1 percent to 1.5 percent in the next 12 months with the private sector starved for credit and austerity policies limiting growth. Ireland’s first sale of 10-yr government bonds since its 2010 bailout is a sign of the gradual healing in Europe’s financial
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Bill Gross at Pimco said: The increase in unemployment in January gives bond yields room to decline. Central bank stimulus has made bond markets bubbly. Avoid longer-maturity governments because of the inflation risk from quantitative easing et al. As long as check writing in the trillions continues, it’s a foundation for
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Rob Haworth at US Bank Wealth Mgmt said 2012 saw much liquidating by hedge funds, but there’s an incentive to reverse that because of growth in emerging markets and especially China – it’s going to be a good year for commodities. The median economist expects China to accelerate for at
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Joseph Tanious at JPMorgan Funds said the jobs report shows the labor market is healing very slowly, so not so good that the Fed might pull out of QE. Deutsche Bank said supply chain movements suggest iPhone and iPad production may be declining. Mohamed El-Erian at Pimco said 7.8 percent unemployment shows
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