Salient to Investors: Gary Shilling writes: Persistently slow growth will NOT be the norm for years to come. When private-sector deleveraging is completed, real GDP growth will return to its long-run trend of 3.5 percent or more. Productivity will return to 2.5 percent annual growth or more after deleveraging is
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Gary Shilling writes: The pessimistic economic theories are wrong. Weak growth will NOT last forever despite the Reinhart-Rogoff findings that the economy contracts at a 0.1 percent annual rate when government debt exceeds 90 percent of GDP. In the late 1970s and early 1980s many economists presumed
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Gary Shilling at A. Gary Shilling writes: The Fed usually starts raising the federal funds rate before economic expansions are very old but this time will wait until the wave of de-leveraging, and the related slow growth, has ended. De-leveraging after major financial crises usually takes a
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Gary Shilling writes: In May, when the Fed first started talking about tapering, 10-yr yields jumped to 2.72 percent in early July from 1.64 percent on May 1 and 30-yr yields to 3.68 percent from 2.83 percent. Most investors hate Treasuries because they believe that serious inflation
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: A. Gary Shilling at A. Gary Shilling & Co writes: The outlook for the labor market remains bleak. Older Americans are holding onto jobs longer, limiting openings for newcomers, and employers are extending working hours and paying overtime rather than hiring. In June 2013, almost 11 million people
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: A. Gary Shilling at A. Gary Shilling & Co writes: The total labor-force participation rates tend was 63.5 percent in June 2013 versus 67.4 percent in early 2000. The participation rates of 16-to 24-year-olds has declined sharply since 2000 as slow economic growth, limited jobs and rising unemployment rates have encouraged
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: A. Gary Shilling writes: The Fed has yet to achieve its dual mandate of price stability and full employment. QE had been tried by the Bank of Japan for years without notable success, but Western central banks have become increasingly desperate as they look for ways to
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Gary Shilling writes: The fog remains thick, so reducing long positions in Treasury bonds and Japanese stocks and cut yen shorts, euro shorts and dollar long positions. Maintaining long positions in US defensive stocks like utilities and health care. Increased short position in junk bonds and initiated
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: A. Gary Shilling at A. Gary Shilling & Co. writes: Short stocks and commodities, go long the dollar and Treasuries – if stocks continue to decline, the safety of Treasuries and investment-grade bonds will outweigh concerns about the end of QE. World economies are growing slowly at
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: A. Gary Shilling at A. Gary Shilling & Co. says 5 of the 7 varieties of deflation are present in the US economy. Commodity price deflation will continue as oversupply continues to swamp demand amid weak global growth and a hard landing in China, which remains export-driven. The slow global
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