Salient to Investors: Norman Villamin at Coutts said earnings disappointments are not much of a surprise given the weak local economies, but they should stabilize later in 2013. Villamin said bullish global sentiment is the primary concern as everyone is on the same side of the trade, and euro strength against
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Meghan O’Sullivan at Harvard writes: Many analysts anticipate North American energy independence by 2020, while our rising energy fortunes strongly counter the now-common global narrative that the US is in decline. Europe, China, Japan and other large economies face futures of ever-growing dependence on imported energy. montaukplayhouse.org/www/ The
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: German Q4 2012 GDP shrank 0.6 percent from Q3 versus the 0.5 percent contraction predicted by 47 economists. French and Italian GDP shrank more than forecast. OECD predicts global growth will accelerate to 3.4 percent in 2013. Nick Kounis at ABN Amro Bank said euro-zone GDP growth is likely to have fallen
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Hedge funds et al boosted net-long positions across 18 US futures and options last week, marking the longest stretch of gains in more than 6 months. Michael Strauss at Commonfund said economically sensitive commodities will do well in a favorable global environment for commodities. The Intl Copper Study Group and Johnson Matthey estimate the
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Anshu Jain at Deutsche Bank lauded Germany’s pro-austerity policies and the ECB’s commitment to limitless bond purchases as catalysts for bringing the euro past the acute stage of the crisis. Jain said implied default probabilities in Italy and Spain are as high as 20 percent and still a worry.
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: The MSCI World Index rose 5 percent in January, the most since 1994, on individual investor inflows, US profits, interest rates at record lows, and improving growth from Europe to China. The Index rose 6.4 percent at the start of 1994, and GDP increased 7.7 percent that year, and rose
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: William C. Dudley at FRB of New York said the international economy is gradually improving in a trend that benefits US growth. Dudley said Europe is considerably brighter as political support for fixing budgets is holding up, the ECB has provided a credible backstop, and it’s very clear countries want to
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Nicholas Spiro at Spiro Sovereign Strategy writes: Market sentiment toward the euro area has swung from panic to growing confidence in just six months. Spain and Italy, the twin bellwethers of sentiment on Europe, show how markets are again underpricing sovereign risk as even a cursory glance at
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: A. Gary Shilling at A. Gary Shilling & Co writes: In periods of prolonged economic pain, international cooperation gives way to an every-nation-for-itself attitude, including competitive devaluations. Decreasing the value of a currency, by creating and selling unlimited quantities, is much easier than supporting it, by selling
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: The median economist estimated unemployment in the euro region rose for a fifth month to 11.9 percent, the highest jobless rate since records began in 1995, while German unemployment held steady at 6.9 percent. The median economist expects the euro-area economy to decline 0.4 percent in Q4 2012, annual inflation
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