Salient to Investors: Sudakshina Unnikrishnan and Jian Chang at Barclays say should China’s growth dip to 3 percent in the next 3 years, copper would fall more than 60 percent, zinc by up to 50 percent, and oil to $70 a barrel. They cite risks of slowing industrial production and of financial stress due to debt of
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Jeffrey Currie et al at Goldman Sachs said: They cut their 12-month commodity return forecast for the S&P GSCI Enhanced Commodity Index to 0.1 percent, maintained a neutral recommendation on raw materials, while precious metals and agricultural commodities may drop 8 percent and base metals will gain 6 percent.
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Money managers reduced their net-long position in gold to the lowest since June 2007, while shorts climbed to the second-highest on record. ETP holdings are at a 3-year low. Banks from Goldman to Credit Suisse cut their gold forecasts last week. Mark Luschini at Janney Montgomery Scott said
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Paul Kavanaugh at FuturePath Trading said the copper chart is bearish for the medium term, and new lows are likely – copper in New York is poised to reach the lowest price since mid-2010 in the next 2 months as its MACD gave a bearish sign. Read the full
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: The S&P GSCI Spot Index has lagged the MSCI All-Country World Index for 6 months, the longest stretch since 1998. Hedge funds cut combined bullish bets across 18 US raw-material futures by 51 percent from a 16-month high in September and are bearish on 6 of them. EPFR Global
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Copper stockpiles are rising to the highest in a decade, yet manufacturers are paying the biggest premiums for the metal in as much as 7 years as financing deals lock up supply and extend lines at warehouses. LME copper inventories more than doubled in the past year and
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Goldman Sachs: Lowered its 3- and 12-month return forecasts for the S&P GSCI index of 24 commodities to 2.5 percent in 3 months and 3 percent in 12 months, and cut its near-term outlook on commodities to neutral from overweight, amid prospects for weak global demand. Exited its
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Hedge funds reduced bets on a commodity rally by the most since 2008 on rising supplies of everything from copper to sugar and slowing US growth. Investors are betting on a decline in silver for the first time since data began in 2006, and have record bearish positions in copper
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Hedge funds are making the biggest bet against copper on record as global inventories expand to a 9-year high, while concern that Europe’s debt crisis will spread spurred the biggest gain in gold bets since 2008. Jack Ablin at BMO Private Bank cites unprecedented stockpiles of copper and other metals
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: China’s swap market is signaling interest-rate increases for the first time since 2011 after inflation accelerated to a 10-month high and the housing market defied government-cooling efforts. Hedge funds are making the biggest bet against copper on record. Edward Meir at INTL FCStone said China’s growth story remains intact, but
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