Salient to Investors: Miles Hoffman writes: Expect at least a 20% move down, and a seasonally bearish Fall. Bear markets have two phases, and can move down and up sharply. The first is where the leading sector of the prior bull market goes into a bear market, while other sectors
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: David Stockman writes: The bull market is dead, yet stock option addicted corporate executives are buying their own drastically over-priced shares hand-over-fist. Corporate stock buybacks and dividends are back to late 2007 levels of all of net income, lured by 80 months of ZIRP and $3.5 trillion of debt monetization by
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: James Hickman writes: Uninterrupted streaks in which the S&P 500 closes within 10% of its all time peak historically precede sudden declines: viz the tech bubble of the 1990s and the credit/housing bubble of the 2000s. The median decline from the peak is 43% and typically takes 13
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Mark Hulbert writes: The stock market may be overvalued and could begin a bear market but it does not resemble the bubble market in 2000. The explosion of bubble warnings is unwarranted. The 5 identifiers found by JeffreyWurgler at NYU and Malcolm Baker at Harvard in stock market
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Share buybacks are now the preferred way to boost stock prices in the face of softening earnings. Quarterly spending on dividends has risen 80% and capital-expenditure budgets have risen 44% since early 2009, whereas spending on buybacks has risen nearly 5 times . In Q1 2015, SPX companies returned
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: New research suggests the advice analysts give in bad times seems to be even worse than the boosterism they peddle in good times. Roger Loh of Singapore Management University and René Stulz of Ohio State found: Analysts’ forecasts of profits and buy/sell recommendations from 1983-2011 were less
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Doug Short writes: The S&P 500 is at 18.7 times reported earnings versus the average since the 1870s of 15. In times of critical importance, the conventional P/E ratio often lags the index to the point of being useless as a value indicator because earning can fall
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Credit Suisse cut reduced its allocation to stocks to neutral from overweight. Michael Strobaek at Credit Suisse said the fundamental environment remains attractive, but the markets are overbought, and the positive economic outlook and further supportive monetary policy are largely priced in, limiting upside in the near-term. Strobaek said the
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Matt Busigin writes: Corporate profits are going to be weak over the next decade, but it won’t matter very much to assets, and even be beneficial to labor. Consensus analyst estimates call for S&P 500 EPS in 2014 of over $123, 20% above the present value. Corporate
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Top investing myths: Buy and hold forever. Better to buy and protect as companies and economies change. Have an exit plan to guard against catastrophic loss. Only performance matters. Let you investment objectives guide your investment selection and diversity. Charts are for traders. Charts are important tools
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