Salient to Investors: James Hickman writes: Uninterrupted streaks in which the S&P 500 closes within 10% of its all time peak historically precede sudden declines: viz the tech bubble of the 1990s and the credit/housing bubble of the 2000s. The median decline from the peak is 43% and typically takes 13
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Jordan Wathen at TMFValueMagnet writes: Eyquem found that from 1951 to 2013, the lowest PE decile of stocks compounded annual returns of 16.7% versus 9.3% for the highest decile. Never pile in or out of an investment for the simple fear of falling behind. No one gets fired
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: The S&P 500 has closed at new highs 33 times in 2014, while less than 6% of stocks are in bear markets. 47% of Nasdaq Composite stocks and over 40% of Russell 2000 and Bloomberg IPO Index stocks are at least 20% off their 12-month highs. 45% of
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Andrew Garthwaite et al at Credit Suisse say there is a 25% chance Scotland will choose independence on September 18, while markets will price in a 35% chance, so recommend buying Scottish stocks 2 days before the vote because investors tend to overact to political uncertainty. If independence wins, they
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: James O’Shaughnessy of O’Shaughnessy Asset Mgmt said: Fidelity found that their best performing accounts were those of people who forgot they had an account with them. The shorter you hold a stock, the more likely you are to lose money. Barry Ritholtz found that when families fought over inherited
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: The market looks more and more like the dot-com bubble market except for valuations: 19x now versus near 30x then. Widespread gains now compare with the concentration in computer shares back then. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index has risen at an annualized 28% rate since 2009,
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Barry Ritholtz writes: Rarely have conditions for market gains been so promising at a time when investor psychology has been so negative. Only 7% in a Gallup poll were aware of the S&P 500’s 30% increase in 2013, while more than 50% would put new cash into
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Mitch Tuchman at Rebalance IRA writes: The best strategy for a retirement investor with a 5 to 25 year time horizon in a tax-deferred account uses low-cost index funds allocated across multiple asset classes and re-balanced at least annually. Re-balancing – the discipline to sell assets that
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: David Weidner writes: Five years into a slow paced economic recovery is good reason to be buying stocks, because rapidly growing economies usually goes belly up as quickly as they rise. The stock market always leads the economy but a 155% rise in the Dow since 2009
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Home prices are rising faster than incomes in much of the US. Thomas Lawler at Lawler Economic & Housing Consulting said the decline of first-time homebuyers, hurt by rising prices and tougher credit standards threatens to widen the wealth gap between owners and renters. Lawler said potential
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