Salient to Investors: The Russell 2000 VIX is up almost 11 percent in 2014 versus a 6.6 percent drop in the VIX and at its highest level since 2006 relative to the VIX. Russell Rhoads at CBOE’s Options Institute said the premium indicates we would get a bigger pullback in small-caps than large-caps in a market
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Jeremy Grantham said: The stock market is expensive and headed for a bubble at S&P 500 above 2250, and offers paltry returns for years to come. Expect an explosion of M&As to record numbers due to cheaper debt in this cycle, profit margins that will remain high, a still young
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Jeffrey Currie at Goldman Sachs predicts gold to fall to $1,050 by year-end as the economy improves and there is more confidence in the recovery, without significant inflationary concerns. Goldman predicts higher interest rates in Q3, 2015. Last week, net-long positions in gold rose to their highest
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Individual investors have added $100 billion to equity mutual funds and ETFs in the past year, 10 times more than the previous 12 months, and vs. outflows of $300 billion in the 5 years through 2012 and inflows of $102 billion in Q1 2000 just before the tech
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Money managers increased net-long positions in gold for a fourth straight week through July 1 and assets in gold-backed global ETPs are rising at the fastest pace since November 2012. John Kinsey at Caldwell Securities expects further gold strength through 2014. Societe Generale predicts gold prices will
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Rotating into defensive industries has been a losing strategy for the third straight year as personal spending, manufacturing and inflation have exceeded analyst forecasts. The median projection says Q2 GDP grew 3.5 percent. Inflows into health-care and utility ETFs exceed $3 billion in 2014 versus $580 million inflows
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Analysts expect earnings to fall this year at Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase et al, but rise 20 percent or more at discount brokers. Chad Morganlander at Stifel, Nicolaus said household investors are getting more confident as their fear thaws out – volatility terrifies retail investors. James Gaul
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: David Weidner writes: Five years into a slow paced economic recovery is good reason to be buying stocks, because rapidly growing economies usually goes belly up as quickly as they rise. The stock market always leads the economy but a 155% rise in the Dow since 2009
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: $19.99 sounds a lot cheaper than $20. The S&P 500 had trouble with the 1,000 level from July 1997 to September 2003, and then following the financial crisis. It took the DJIA from 1968 to 1982 to get comfortable with the 1,000 level. Nicholas Colas at ConvergEx
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: American short sellers have been hurt for 5 years by the biggest market rally since the Internet bubble. Bearish wagers in the SPDR ETF are near 11 percent of its shares, the highest level since 2012. Bearish wagers against a technology ETF are 67 percent above the
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