Salient to Investors:
The S&P 500 Index is up 82 percent since Obama took office, closer to its all-time high than any other stock markets, and at 14.9 times reported earnings, the biggest discount to MSCI’s global measure since March 2010, and 9.1 percent below the five-decade mean – the last two times the ratio was this low versus global stocks, in 2003 and 2009, gains in the S&P 500 lasted for at least three years. The S&P 500 has never stayed above 1,400 when the unemployment rate was this high.
Abby Joseph Cohen at Goldman Sachs says its most thoughtful clients are more confident, and America is dramatically better off than we were.
Jim Chanos at Kynikos Associates says the American economy and banking system are in better shape than others, and expects surprises will be on the positive side in the U.S. market. Chanos says recovery in U.S. housing and improving auto sales point to a strengthening economy.
Chris Hyzy at U.S. Trust expects growth in the US and the world will better than expected next year, and is bullish over the next three years.
Ryan Larson at RBC Global Asset Management (U.S.) said on Sept. 12 that these multi-year highs have come largely from stimulus accommodation from central banks.
Fidelity report the average 401(k) balance rose to $72,800 in Q2 from $62,400 in 2008.
Jeffrey Gundlach at DoubleLine Capital said last week that stocks won’t repeat the poor performance of 2000 to 2010.