Salient to Investors:
EPFR Global said the increase in inflows into commodity funds in 2012 was 92 percent higher than the increase in 2011. The S&P GSCI, of which energy comprises 70 percent, fell 0.9 percent in 2012, the MSCI All-Country World Index rose 13 percent, the Dollar Index fell 0.9 percent, Treasuries returned 2.3 percent. Barclays says commodity assets under management rose 8.6 percent in the first 10 months of 2012, gold-backed ETP holdings rose 12 percent.
Hedge funds’ reduced bullish bets in Q4 2012, which are 51 percent higher than a year ago. 131 traders, investors and analysts expect precious metals to rise as much as 25 percent in 2013, grains to rise 18 percent, and industrial metals to rise 16 percent, and other commodities at least 9.9 percent.
Edward Morse at Citigroup says price rises in 9 of the past 10 years are creating supply gluts. Citigroup says the super cycle of returns has ended because China is growing more slowly and supply has caught up. Citigroup sees grain and soybean prices being supported in half1 2013 by tight supplies.
Barclays and Rabobank Intl say output will exceed demand next year in 10 commodities.
Goldman Sachs expects gold to peak in 2013 due to rising U.S. growth. Jeffrey Currie at Goldman Sachs says accelerating economic growth in half2 2013 will increase demand, and sees a 7 percent return in commodities over 12 months. Currie says increasing consumption will curb available supply, boost near-term prices relative to longer-dated contracts.
Peter Jankovskis at Oakbrook Investments said the disparity in outlooks is due to uncertainty about the economy and government policies over the next year.
Hussein Allidina and Peter Richardson at Morgan Stanley say demand for energy and grains will be resilient and delayed harvests in South America will limit corn and soybean supplies, while economies will accelerate in half2 2013 if central banks extend stimulus. Morgan Stanley said central-bank stimulus will cause investors to continue to buy gold, which will average $1,853 an ounce in 2013,
Jack Ablin at BMO Private Bank said commodities tend to be victims of their own success – we have unprecedented inventories in industrial metals.
The IMF expects world growth to rise to 3.6 percent in 2013. The median economist expects China to accelerate in Q4.
James Paulsen at Wells Capital Mgmt says there’s a good undertow for commodities, which will trend higher the next few years.
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