Salient to Investors: Derivatives traders are signaling little chance of a bear market in bonds for the next three years, because the Fed continues to flood the financial system with money to boost the economy. William O’Donnell at RBS Securities said the focus of the Fed is still unemployment, which it sees as not
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Rising long-term rates indicate traders expect the economy to pick up. Bill Gross at Pimco is avoiding long-term bonds, and sees US inflation benign in 2013 and possibly rising in 2014 to 2016 on faster inflation. Hiroki Shimazu at SMBC Nikko Securities said the recovering global economy is pushing up
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: William C. Dudley at FRB of New York said the international economy is gradually improving in a trend that benefits US growth. Dudley said Europe is considerably brighter as political support for fixing budgets is holding up, the ECB has provided a credible backstop, and it’s very clear countries want to
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Robert Lutts at Cabot Money Mgmt said the economy will be driven by capital being put to work: the glass is definitely more half full than empty. 73 percent of the 254 S&P 500 companies so far reporting have beaten estimates, and 65 percent have beaten sales estimates. Read the
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Christopher Sullivan at United Nations Federal Credit Union said we have settled at higher yields as the market is suspicious of low bond yields when risk assets are rallying – the market is focusing more on positive indicators of moderate strength than negative numbers. Thomas di Galoma at Navigate
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Suanjin Tan at BlackRock said the avalanche of new deals has investors fatigued, and continued home-price restrictions and a slowing economy means being selective. Tan sees a big mindset shift in the past year with fears of a huge property market collapse in China gone: the risks are there but very few
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Mitali Das and Papa N’Diaye at the IMF said China’s supply of low-cost workers will run out between 2020 and 2025 pushed by a precipitous drop in the working-age population, and necessitating a shift to a more intensive growth model with a greater reliance on improving total factor productivity. A 2010
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Paul Zemsky at ING Investment Mgmt sees much momentum for stocks even after such a good start to the year: earnings are strong, world economies are bottoming and valuations are attractive. EPFR Global report $39 billion moved into equity mutual funds in 2013, more than double the comparable period in
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Treasuries are trailing stocks by the most since October 2011. Hiromasa Nakamura at Mizuho Asset Mgmt said the current rise in yields is due to Fed easing, while investors expect money to go into riskier assets, and equity markets are rising. Bill Gross at Pimco said unprecedented central
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Timothy Drinkall at Morgan Stanley were overweight in Argentine stocks at the ed of 2012 after avoiding them earlier in the year. Drinkall said valuations are extremely low after government controls on imports and currency markets weakened Argentina’s economy and President Fernandez’s declining popularity has curtailed her ability to implement some of
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