Salient to Investors: Peter Orszag at Citigroup writes: A growing body of academic studies warns that economic growth in China might slow substantially in the decades to come. Past growth has been driven disproportionately by workers moving from farms to factories, but those economic gains are over – the Lewis turning
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Marc Faber of The Gloom Boom and Doom Report says 200 million people in SE Asia will be linked by road and rail and the region can easily grow 6-7 % per annum for the next 10 years. Faber’s concern in Asia is the political development – the military will
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Zhu Haibin at JPMorgan Chase said the data support the view that the economic rebound will be mild this quarter, and the current relatively accommodative monetary policy is unlikely to be loosened further. Dariusz Kowalczyk at Credit Agricole CIB said the year-over-year increase in aggregate financing suggests enough funds to ensure implementation of stimulus
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Jim O’Neill writes: Nothing has materially changed by the US election and the Chinese leadership handover. The positive surprise in Korean exports in October indicates a pick up in world trade. Japan reported its first seasonally-adjusted current account deficit following other generally grim economic news. It is
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Unlike Greece, Spain and Britain, the US economy is fundamentally healthy. The US debt problem can be readily resolved as long as both parties compromise. Over the past 5 years, Republicans in the Senate have threatened or used a filibuster 385 times, or almost double the rate
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Li Jun at Central China Securities said investors think the economy may have bottomed, especially since the PMI showed positive signs, but we need more liquidity for any gains to last. Lu Ting at Bank of America sees increasing evidence for green shoots in China – upped Q4 GDP growth estimate to
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Real estate investors and developers are abandoning a two-year foray into China’s provincial cities and switching back to Shanghai and Beijing, where prime offices are close to full occupancy and rents are on par with New York and Sydney, and home prices are stabilizing. Home prices have risen 155 percent
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Asian currencies strengthened for a fifth month on signs of a pickup in China, where industrial output, retail sales and fixed-asset investment gathered pace in September. Tsutomu Soma at Rakuten Securities said funds are flowing into Asia. EPFR Global said emerging-market bond funds attracted $44.2 billion this year through Oct. 24 versus $15.9
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Copper futures ended the longest slump in 14 years, on prospects for increased Chinese demand. Wang Zhongkui at Beijing Antaike Information Development said total Chinese demand may gain an average 6 percent a year from 2011 to 2015. Tobias Merath at Credit Suisse said there is a supply deficit, and Chinese
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Ding Shuang at Citigroup said China’s fiscal policy will be neutral in Q4 as spending won’t be higher than a year earlier – policy effects from previous months will ensure a modest recovery, but the rebound is restrained. Professor Song Guoqing at Peking University said the fiscal money left for spending
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