Salient to Investors:
UBS said power producers will open six times more coal-burning plants than gas-fed units by 2015. Demand for emission permits will rise because coal-fired generators need twice as many credits as gas users under climate protection rules.
Matthew Gray at Jefferies says the outlook for Certified Emission Reductions will improve in half2 2013.
Laurent Segalen at ECMF is seeing the economics for coal near the best in five years, and says UN credits for 2013 are a bargain. Segalan expects CERs at 3 euros in half2 2013, though Trevor Sikorski at Barclays said they may struggle to rise above that.
Patrick Hummel at UBS said utilities will add as much as 10,600 megawatts of new coal plants in 7 central European countries in the next four years, versus 1,600 megawatts of new natural-gas capacity – all projects decided several years ago during the boom years.
Deborah Wilkens at Goldman Sachs expects NW Europe’s coal-fed capacity to rise 4.6 percent next year and 3 percent for gas-fired power stations, then capacity will drop after 2013 for both fuels. Goldman expects profits at coal-fired power stations to more than double by then.