U.S. to Be World’s Top Oil Producer in 5 Years, Report Says = New York Times 11-12-12

The IEA said:

• The US will overtake Saudi Arabia as the world’s leading oil producer by about 2017 and will become a net oil exporter by 2030, and become all but self-sufficient in meeting its energy needs in about two decades.
• Global energy demand will grow between 35 and 46 percent from 2010 to 2035, mostly from China, India and the Middle East.
• The US will overtake Russia as the leading producer of natural gas in 2015.
• Electricity prices will become 50 percent cheaper in the US than in Europe.
• The use of coal, the dirtiest fuel, continues to rise elsewhere, and no more than one-third of the proved reserves of fossil fuels should be used by 2050 to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius.

Fatih Birol at IEA said the foundations of the global energy systems are shifting, with Middle Eastern oil rerouted to China. American-mined coal heading to Europe and China. Birol said the prediction of self-sufficiency was 55 percent dependent on more oil production and 45 percent on improving energy efficiency in the US.

Michael A. Levi at the Council on Foreign Relations cautioned that being self-sufficient did not mean insulation from seesawing energy prices, set by global markets. Levi said the IEA report assumes improved gas mileage in cars and energy efficiency in homes and appliances, and confirms that we will blow past every safe target for emissions.