Salient to Investors:

  • 74 percent of 34 analysts expect wage growth to begin to outpace inflation on a sustainable basis in Q2, 2015 or later.
  • Rob Wood at Berenberg Bank said real wages will start to grow in half1 2015 but it will be several years before we get back to normal.’
  • Daniel Vernazza at UniCredit said the central scenario is very good and the data warrants an increase in rates – these are emergency rates but the economy is not in an emergency state – and after the Scotland vote regular pay growth may rise over the next few months.
  • Philip Rush at Nomura Intl expects the first rate increase in February.

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