Salient to Investors:
Tobias Levkovich at Citigroup predicts the S&P 500 will hit 1,615 in 2013.
Brian Belski at Bank of Montreal predicts the S&P 500 to hit 1,575 in 2013.
Savita Subramanian at Bank of America expects the S&P 500 to hit 1,600, but straight up, in 2013 on record earnings, reduced concerns about the global economy, and high bearishness on Wall Street. Subramanian said economic growth could disappoint in half2 2012 and early 2013, adding to recession in Europe and decelerating trends in emerging markets.
Abby Joseph Cohen at Goldman Sachs said investors risk tolerance is improving but still not back to normal.
The S&P 500 companies have posted 11 quarters of earnings expansion.
11 of 12 analysts surveyed expect S&P 500 earnings above $100 a share in 2013
Charles Bobrinskoy at Ariel Investments said people like the idea of a Fed put, the idea the Fed will stand behind the economy and step in to intervene.
Hayes Miller at Baring Asset Mgmt says equity gains have gone too far too fast, and stocks will fall once investors realize profit margins have peaked and the Fed’s stimulus has driven most of the rally. Miller said QE3 is more artificial stimulation that kicks the can further down the road – we still have to work through excess debt that needs to be restructured, the fiscal cliff, and the fact that we have been on peak profits.
US stock mutual funds posted net outflows for a fifth year through 2011, the longest streak in data going back to 1984. Withdrawals have exceeded $80 billion this year.
Andrew Slimmon at Morgan Stanley Smith Barney sees capitulation buying by many investors with too much cash.