Salient to Investors: Jonathan Glionna at Barclays said: There is insufficient data not enough data – only 21 observations in the last 86 years – to expect a repeat of stocks’ habit of rallying after midterm elections – a median 7% in the 90 days following, with a range of
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: The median economist predicts GDP will grow 3.1 percent in half2 2014 and 2015 will be the strongest year in a decade. Ethan Harris at Bank of America sees no major headwinds and forecasts 3 percent growth in half2 2014 on fewer government cutbacks, rising auto demand
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Argutori writes: The financial markets are due for a correction. Volatility in the financial markets will spike before the end of 2013 because: Volatility can’t go much lower. Historically, when the VIX has dropped below 15 the S&P 500 tends to fall as well. Over the past
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: John Lynch at Wells Fargo Private Bank said ISM was decidedly negative, and bad news can only be good news for so long for stock prices – at some point it will impact earnings and market levels. Sam Stovall at S&P said the rally and strong start to
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Jeffrey Hirsch at the Stock Trader’s Almanac writes: Three main seasonal and cyclical patterns have stood the test of time: the 4-year Presidential Election/Stock Market Cycle, the Best 6 Months Switching Strategy and January’s basket of indicators and trading strategies. Caveat. History never repeats itself exactly. 1.
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Joseph Tanious at JPMorgan Funds said everyone is trying to figure the Fed – strong data reinforces the Fed message of the past few weeks and justifies the tapering of QE, while weak data makes people think the Fed is going continue QE a bit longer, with
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: April is the most rewarding for investors in the municipal market – since 2009, yields on benchmark 10-year debt have fallen more in April than any other month. April has shown gains in each of the past six years. Yields on 10-year benchmark munis have fallen in April by 9 percent
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Bruce Berkowitz at Fairholme Capital Mgmt said mutual funds are great vehicles but have rules that allow mutual fund holders to cash out anytime and puts his long-term investing style at a disadvantage, and hurts managers who favor concentrated positions. Berkowitz said he is prone to investing
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Swings in US stocks are at the lowest level in 6 years, an indicator that has most often coincided with incumbent parties keeping the presidency in data going back to 1900. Daily changes in the Dow have trailed the 112-year average of 0.75 percent in 13 of 17 instances
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: 70 percent of S&P 500 companies have beaten analysts’ estimates this quarter. Dow fluctuations this year are the smallest in an election year since 2004, and less than the 112-year average when the incumbents won (13 of 17) and lost (6 of 11). Volatility declines indicate less concern that prices will
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