Salient to Investors:

The IMF said:

  • Global growth for 2013 will be unchanged at 3.1 percent as US growth slows to 1.7 percent in 2013 and 2.7 percent in 2014. Global growth will be 3.8 percent in 2014.
  • Downside risks to global growth prospects still dominate, with the possibility of a longer growth slowdown in emerging markets, especially if the anticipated unwinding of QE in the US leads to sustained capital flow reversals.
  • Central banks in wealthy nations facing low inflation and economic slack should keep stimulating until recovery is entrenched.
  • Rising longer-term interest rates have hurt emerging markets the most.
  • China will grow 7.8 percent in 2013, and the euro area will shrink 0.6 percent as France, Italy and Spain contract.
  • Growth will weaken in China and other emerging markets as external demand growth has slowed and advanced economy longer-term interest rate volatility has risen. The US is held back by fiscal contraction and Europe will remain in recession.
  • Japan will increase growth to 2 percent growth in 2013 on record monetary easing and increased private demand. Italy will contact 1.8 percent, France will contract 0.2 percent, Germany will grow 0.3 percent. Brazil will grow 2.5 percent, and Russia will grow 2.5 percent in 2013. Developing economies will grow 5 percent in 2013, versus 1.2 percent for advanced economies.
  • Monetary stimulus should continue until the recovery is well-established. The euro area should work towards a fuller banking union, and reform product and labor markets.

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