Salient to Investors:

Greece accounts for just 2.3 percent of EU GDP, and 4.3 percent of EU debt. Without Greece , the EU would have had a trade surplus in 2011.

Germany has posted a trade surplus every month since May 1991 and has avoided recession since 2009.

OECD says the euro is undervalued against 10 of 12 major counterparts.


Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz believes losing Greece will strengthen the EU, and expects the euro to rise.

Nomura Holdings’ Jens Nordvig sees a stronger and more stable monetary union if Greece exits if followed by additional integration – with the euro rising as much as 8 percent. But with no additional integration, capital flight would accelerate and the euro would drop significantly. A Greece exit wouldn’t greatly impact the remaining economies.

George Soros said European leaders have a three-month window to correct their mistakes and reverse current trends. He expects the euro to survive because a breakup would be devastating also for Germany.

Harvard’s Martin Feldstein believes a Greek exit would be chaos short-term, but allow Greece to devalue its new currency and return growth and employment.

Berenberg Bank’s Christian Schulz opposes a Greece exit, but if it happens then it is better for the other EU countries because they are more harmonized already.

Eaton Vance’s Michael Cirami said a Greek exit would lead to a stronger and more stable currency bloc in the medium to long-term.

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