Salient to Investors:
Stronger housing demand and hiring in the US and accelerating factory output and retail sales in China is providing international growth as Europe and Japan stagnate.
Jim O’Neill at Goldman Sachs Asset Mgmt said improving China and the US is extremely good news.
Tim Drayson at Legal & General Investment Mgmt said policy uncertainty is affecting business confidence, delaying capital expenditure especially in the US.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch said fund managers’ global growth expectations were the most optimistic since February 2011 and the outlook for China’s economy rose to a 3-year high. For the first time in 7 months a majority said profits will improve rather than deteriorate, and a net 37 percent of asset allocators were overweight in global emerging-market equities versus 32 percent last month.
Aviva Investors Global Services said that more expansive monetary policies give a 65 percent probability of global growth over the next six months with a 20 percent chance growth stalls.
Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer said the risk has abated somewhat, but the world is still awfully close to a recession and there’s renewed concern about Greece, new concern about Germany – when Germany slows down that is big in Europe.
Citigroup surprise indices show the US and China are increasingly proving stronger than anticipated.
David Hensley at JPMorgan Chase said behind the upturn is continued monetary stimulus and a potential recovery in industrial growth. Hensley expects modest acceleration.
Bill Miller at Legg Mason Capital Mgmt said if housing continues to recover, it will underpin the economy. Miller said the economy is troughing and will lead to growth in 2013.
The median analyst sees China GDP growth at 7.7 percent in Q4 and 7.9 percent in Q4.
John McCormick at Royal Bank of Scotland is mildly bullish and cautiously optimistic with respect to China, predicting certain growth of over 7.5 percent and maybe over 8 percent.
Analysts experts Japan’s contraction will extend into Q4.
Moody’s Investors Service lowered its forecasts for G-20 to 3 percent in 2013 versus 2.7 percent in 2012.
Mohamed El-Erian at Pimco said a true global rebound may be impossible until political uncertainty dissipates, and expects world growth will remain sluggish.
Chen Zhiwu at Yale said the new Chinese leadership brings new energy which is good news through half1 2013.
Economists expect Brazil GDP will increase 4 percent in 2013 versus 1.5 percent in 2012.
Nariman Behravesh at IHS said global growth has stabilized and sees no more downgrades in the outlook.