Salient to Investors: Bill Gross at Janus Capital said: The global economy is dangerously close to deflationary growth. Any whiff of deflation and things tend to reverse and go badly. The CRB Commodity Index is lower than in 2008 when Lehman went bankrupt. Oil, metals and crops have plunged due to
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: The longest-dated Treasuries yield less than half the 6.8% average over the past five decades but are in line with the norm for the prior half-century. David Jones said the notion that Treasury yields are too low is shaped by players who began their careers in the wake
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Bill Gross at Pimco said: Insufficient credit creation with 2% economic growth jeopardizes US growth because our credit-based financial economy depends on an ever-expanding outstanding level of credit for its survival. If the credit growth is more than 4.5% a year, then private and public sectors must create
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Bill Gross at Pimco said: If central banks can convince investors that their policies can reproduce the old normal economy, then risk assets will have higher future returns and outperform cash, trickling down to respectable growth rates and lower global unemployment. Central banks must shift to qualitative
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Yao Wei at Societe Generale said it will be very challenging to achieve everything promised in Li’s work report and that something has to give in speeding up reform, fighting pollution, managing debt risk, keeping the same growth target. Dong Tao at Credit Suisse said it would
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: The spread between the 2-yr China sovereign yield and the similar-maturity interest-rate swap, a gauge of financial stress, last week reached the widest in Bloomberg data going back to 2007. George Soros and Bill Gross have drawn parallels between the situation in China and that in the
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Bill Gross at Pimco said: Payroll growth in November signals at least a 50 percent chance the Fed will taper in December as it clearly wants out, but must be careful given the tepid growth of 2 percent. The median analyst predicts the Fed will taper to
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Paul Montaquila at Bank of the West said the jobs number was expected but not a blockbuster number, and the steady diet of better numbers are not enough to give the market the clarity they want. Sean Simko at SEI Investments said the market was pricing in
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Bill Gross at Pimco said: The unprecedented cash added to the financial system by central banks is raising the risk of a slide in global asset prices. Global economies and their artificially priced markets are increasingly at risk, but the unwinding may occur gradually.” The Fed, BoJ,
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Bill Gross at Pimco said: If you trust only one thing, trust that once QE is gone and the policy rate becomes the focus, that fed funds will stay lower than expected for a long, long time. The market and the Fed are wrong is forecasting fed
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