Salient to Investors:

Nassim Taleb said:

  • Over the last 2000 years, there is no no statistical evidence that violence has dropped, or that the frequency or magnitude of wars is declining.
  • People are lulled into a false sense of security because of the nature of fat tail events, which can take hundreds of years, and because they use mean naively and underestimate the role of randomness
  • Large events can take a long time, and between events is totally unpredictable and random.
  • Catastrophically fatal wars have fatter tails than those of financial crises. Black swan events are far more deleterious in cases of war than finance because a smaller number of events determine a larger share of the casualties.

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