Salient to Investors:
Walter “Bucky” Hellwig at BB&T Wealth Mgmt said Intuit’s monthly small-business employment index, which measures hiring at companies with fewer than 20 workers, and Insperity’s average number of work-site employees paid per month at customers both provide an earlier and accurate read on employment trends at small- and medium-sized businesses, where historically most job growth comes from.
Tobey Sommer at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey says the Insperity report is good for gleaning broader conclusions about the pace of hiring.
Intuit’s small-business employment index rose to 95.1 in June, the highest since 2009. Insperity forecasts that its customers’ average number of work-site employees paid per month will increase as much as 2.2 percent in Q2 from a year ago.
Timothy McHugh at William Blair said Paychex checks per payroll is another useful macroeconomic barometer and said industries hardest hit during the recession – like construction – are in the early stages of a rebound.
Shares of Insperity have beat the S&P 500 by 13 percent since April 26 and shares of Intuit have beaten by 12 percent since May 21,
Lawrence Creatura at Federated Investors said many jobs created at small businesses are part-time, which could be exacerbated by regulations related to the Affordable Care Act – employers may split one 40-hour-a-week job into two 20-hour positions to bypass the government mandate to provide full-time workers with health insurance. Creatura said a job is not it used to be, which could reduce the usefulness of previous data, and more paychecks may not indicate that small business is thriving.
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