Salient to Investors:

  • Zhu Haibin at JPMorgan Chase said property investment will remain the biggest macroeconomic risk in half2 even as a deceleration in investment is less severe than half1.
  • Hua Changchun at Nomura said completed apartments must come to market sooner or later, and potential buyers will continue to expect prices to fall.
  • Donald Yu at Guotai Junan Securities said the increased supply will lead to declining prices in half2.
  • Moody’s Investors Service said construction activity would slow significantly if future demand for property is met increasingly from running down inventories rather than from new supply.
  • Yao Wei et al at Societe Generale said easing of home-purchase curbs mitigates near-term pain, but won’t reverse the downtrend
  • Lan Shen and Stephen Green at Standard Chartered said the worst times for China’s real-estate sector are still ahead.

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