Salient to Investors:

In a Bloomberg poll of 847 investors, analysts and traders:

  • A quarter expect Chinese markets to be among the worst performers over the next year.
  • 46 percent, the highest, say U.S markets offer among the best returns over the next year.
  • 18 percent expect commodities to offer the highest returns
  • Nearly 75 percent expect the Fed to act next week.
  • More than 20 percent expect EU markets to offer among the best returns, the highest reading since the poll began in 2009, second only to the U.S. – Brazil was third and China fourth.
  • Over 60 percent say the Chinese economy is deteriorating
  • About 50 percent say the global economy is deteriorating
  • 22 percent saying the U.S economy is deteriorating
  • Most do not see the Fed raising rates before 2015.
  • Forty-six percent expect U.S. house prices to increase further in the next six months, 14 percent see them falling.
  • 37 percent plan to increase holdings of equities in the next six months
  • One third expect the MSCI Asia Pacific Index to be higher six months from now
  • A majority expects gold to be higher in six months’ time
  • One in five plan to increase their exposure to oil over the next six months

Benjamin Dunn at Alpha Theory said China will suffer disproportionately from a global slowdown in growth and will be unable to prevent a hard landing.

Anuraj Benara at SMC Global Securities said easing by global central banks will push commodity prices higher.

Kim Caughey Forrest at Fort Pitt Capital said the new political guard in China has slowed its stimulus response

Kevin Guezo at Credit Mutuel Arkea said the political environment in China is more favorable to hiding real problems such as the growing level of non- performing bank loans.

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