Salient to Investors:

Sy Harding at Asset Mgmt Research Corporation writes:

  • The four-year presidential cycle is a potential bad omen for the stock market in 2013 or 2014 or both – there is usually a market correction in the first 2 years of each presidential term, followed by recovery and a strong economy and market again in the last 2 years.
  • In the last 18 presidential cycles, a correction has occurred in the first 2 years 16 times for an average decline of 24.6% – 12 began in the first year and 4 began in the second year.
  • Back in 1999, investors and the sales side of Wall Street praised Greenspan as the best Fed Chairman ever. Today, Greenspan is discredited for continuing easy money for too long, while Bernanke is credited with being the best Fed Chairman ever with his easy money policies.
  • Engineering a soft landing by central banks is always the goal in every cycle, in the US and globally. Given 25 bear markets over the last 110 years, or 1 every 4.4 years, that goal is not often achieved.

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