Salient to Investors:

Half2 gold price gains averaged 1.3 percent in the bear market from 1981 to 2000, versus half 1 losses averaging 3.9 percent.

Bernard Sin at MKS said the physical trend has always been very seasonal, as physical players are a different breed and always buy on the dip.

Gold returned an average of 11 percent in half2s during the bull market that began in 2001, more than double the average half1 increase. Thomson ReutersGFMS said demand was stronger in half2 in 9 of the past 12 years.

Ole Hansen at Saxo Bank A/S says there has been a dislocation between the physical and investment market in gold over the past several months, with the physical market often having more of a psychological than actual impact. Hansen said rising interest rates and a stronger dollar will keep gold under pressure no matter how strong the physical demand.

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