Salient to Investors:
The median economist expects the Fed to reduce bond purchases in $10 billion increments over the next 6 meetings before announcing an end to the program by December.
Michael Feroli at JPMorgan Chase said the weather played a big role in the weak jobs report and is a reminder that the improvement won’t be a straight line.
The labor participation rate decreased to 62.8 percent, matching October as the lowest since 1978.
Vincent Reinhart at Morgan Stanley said the medium to long-term concern is labor-force participation as population growth and productivity have slowed and fewer people want to work. Reinhart said the Fed’s decision in December to step away some from strong rate guidance through an unemployment rate threshold seems prescient.
73% of 41 economists said the 6.5 percent unemployment threshold will remain, 22% said the Fed will alter it, and 5 percent said it will be dropped entirely.
Employment in health care and social assistance declined for the first time since July 2003 and accounting firms cut the most since March 2003.
Click here to receive free and immediate email alerts of the latest forecasts.