Salient to Investors:
Fan Jianping at the State Information Center said China may cut its growth target to 7 percent for 2014, although the actual rate will be higher, and said China should stick to its annual goal of 7 percent set in the 7-year plan. Fan said the economy has stabilized but rising industrial output and a falling producer prices index shows the recovery lacks momentum, and estimates growth between 7 percent and 8 percent over the next few years.
Chang Jian at Barclays said in July she expects China will lower the 2014 expansion target to 7 percent when parliament meets in March 2014.
The median analyst expects China’s economic growth slowed to 7.7 percent in 2012 and to 7.5 percent in 2013.
Zhang Zhiwei at Nomura Holdings said the current recovery is unsustainable and it is hard to be optimistic about a recovery in growth because the economy has been supported by investment, especially property and infrastructure, and that momentum cannot continue. Zhang maintained his 2014 forecast of 6.9 percent growth.
Goldman Sachs raised its Q3 growth estimate to 7.7 percent and Q4 estimate to 7.4 percent.
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