Salient to Investors:
IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol said:
- The U.S. will be the largest oil producer of the world around 2017, the largest producer for about five years starting about 2020, after which Saudi Arabia will become the biggest producer again by 2030.
- US oil imports will drop to 4 million barrels a day in 10 years from the current average of 10 million due to new production and stricter fuel-efficiency standards for cars and trucks.
- Efforts by global policy makers to promote energy efficiency have been an epic failure.
- In the US, gas will overtake oil around 2030 to become the largest fuel in the energy mix.
The US met 83 percent of its energy needs in half1 2012.
Gareth Lewis-Davies at BNP Paribas sees a shift in the center of influence in the world oil market, though Saudi Arabia will remain important as a price influencer.
Citigroup said the US will become the largest oil producer before the end of this decade. The IEA said Iraq will be the biggest contributor to new oil supplies, and will overtake Russia as the world’s second-largest exporter.