Salient to Investors:
Nigel Gault at IHS Global Insight said the drop in GDP in Q4 2012 was driven by temporary corrections in defense spending and inventories and is not a harbinger of recession – expects 2 percent growth in Q1 2013.
Mark Zandi at Moody’s Analytics said the expansion will remain on course thanks to a mounting housing recovery, a steadily improving job market, and reviving demand for US exports. Zandi expects 2.1 percent growth in 2013 as an improving job market and rising home prices help offset higher payroll taxes.
Peter Newland at Barclays said the Q4 report ex inventory and defense data was positive – consumer spending growth picked up to 2.2 percent and business investment accelerated.
David Greenlaw and Ted Wieseman at Morgan Stanley expect 1.5 percent growth for Q1 2013.
Michael Feroli at JPMorgan Chase said the reduced pace of stockpiling means companies won’t have to pull back on production as much in Q1 if consumer spending falls in response to the recent tax increases.
Michelle Meyer and Ethan Harris at Bank of America expect household expenditures to take a hit in Q1 due to the increase in payroll taxes.
Carl Riccadonna at Deutsche Bank Securities says housing may lift growth by as much as 2 percent in 2013.
The World Bank predicts developing nations to grow 5.5 percent in 2013, while Europe stabilizes.
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