Salient to Investors:
Lumber prices through Dec. 28 have risen 47 percent in 2012, heading for the biggest annual gain since 1993.
Paul F. Jannke at Forest Economic Advisors expects lumber futures to tumble as much as 25 percent from a 7-yr high due to output increases in Canada.
Scotiabank says lumber is its top commodity pick for 2013 because rising demand in the US and China will strain tight supplies. China consumes 10 percent of the world’s softwood lumber.
Patricia Mohr at Scotiabank predicts the average cash price of lumber to be $360 per 1,000 board feet in 2013 versus $298 in 2012.
Shawn Hackett at Hackett Financial Advisors sees a tremendous crash in the lumber market as its way overdone to the upside – Chinese demand is ebbing because builders made regular purchases in half2 2012, and rising production in North America will drive prices lower in 2013.
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