Salient to Investors:
Bloomberg survey of global investors:
- 38 percent, the highest, expect the US to be in the top two markets over the next year, followed by China.
- 53% say equities offer the highest return in the next year, the most since the poll began in July 2009.
- Nearly 66% plan to increase equities during the next 6 months.
- 35% say the global economy is getting better, twice the number who say it is getting worse – Europeans were the most upbeat, Americans the least.
- 45% say the euro-region is still deteriorating, down from 70% two months ago.
- Over 60% expect the S&P 500 and MSCI Asia-Pacific Index to be higher 6 months from now.
- 20% say Japanese markets will be among the best opportunities over the next year, with a majority expecting the Nikkei 225 to rise over the next six months.
- Over 40% expect the Euro Stoxx 50 Index and FTSE 100 to be higher 6 months from now.
- 46% intend to increase holdings of emerging market equities in the next 6 months versus 8% percent planning to reduce.
- Over 50% say bonds offer the worst returns over the next year, with 60% expecting to reduce Treasuries in the coming 6 months, and less than 5% expecting to increase.
- 35% think EU markets offer the worst returns over the coming year, down from 41 percent in November.
- 69% expect Greece to default, 30% expect Portugal to default, 12 percent expect Ireland to default and 17% expect Italy to default. 68% say Spain is credit worthy.
Ben Kelly at Louis Capital Markets sees cautious optimism.
Nariman Behravesh at IHS said there’s a great sense of relief we dodged a lot of bullets in 2012, and sees recoveries in North America and parts of Asia gathering momentum.
Sriram Srinivasan at Wall Street Investment Mgmt said the improvement in the U.S. is having a positive effect throughout the world.
Ciaran Woods at Citigroup said investors are tired of low yields in safe-haven assets so equities in developed and emerging markets are the natural place to look.
Ron Anari at ICAP said the US is the best place to invest for the next 5 years because of the commitment by the Fed to inflate the economy, and is very confident in Germany’s leadership role.
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