Salient to Investors: In a bear market poised to plunge again. Markets drop twice as fast as they rise because fear is a stronger emotion than greed. Bearish technicals: Broken down from the 6-year bearish Rising Wedge pattern. First bearish moving average cross for 4 years Volume on the recent plunge
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: The market is bearish. Investor sentiment is unlikely to improve short-term as international concerns overshadow domestic ones. Brad McMillan at Commonwealth Financial said it will be another month or so before investor confidence bounces back, and if the S&P 500 falls to as low as 1,790 the likelihood for
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Jim Simons at Math for America said: In the old days, commodities or currencies had a tendency to trend. Trend-following was great in the ’60s, sort of OK in the ’70s, but not OK in the ’80s. You look for anomalies in the data, when efficient market hypothesis
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: David Stockman writes: US stocks are in a bear market. Honest financial markets would have sold off long ago, but for central bank falsification of asset prices. The S&P 500 is at 20 times trailing earnings as of June 2015: $97.32 per share versus $103.12 at the end of
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Harry Dent writes: The first wave down in a bubble tends to happen in a few months or less. Every major bubble back to the tulip bubble in 1637 did not correct in nice stair steps to a drop of 50% to 90%. We are in the “crash season”
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Lee Adler writes: We are in the first leg of a bear market. Markets are neither crazy nor sane, but measure and reflect liquidity. The two official rules are a) the trend is your friend, and b) don’t fight the Fed. Be positive in your coverage of
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: William Pesek writes: Alibaba’s shares slide with each new report of middle-class Chinese raising cash and delaying spending. Alibaba’s $166 billion market cap exceeds the annual output of many countries. The Chinese economy will weaken further: domestic and external demand is sliding along with the stock market. China will experience a negative
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: David Stockman writes: Reliable signs of an economic recovery are few. Housing has not moved at all. Private construction spending is 7% below December 2007 levels, 43% below its early 2006 peak, at January 2002 levels nominally, and 1992 levels when adjusted for inflation. Spending is 2.1% of
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: The official jobless rate is a misleading indicator of employment. The ‘jobs recovery’ has been led by cheap labor, with job gains going disproportionately to the least educated and lowest-paid workers. The stagnation in nominal wage growth is consistent with the weakness in the employment/population (E/P) ratio.
READ MORE... →Salient to Investors: Many investors move money out of China in ways that circumvent its tough limits. China’s foreign-exchange reserves reached nearly $4 trillion in 2014 but have dropped by more than $341 billion since. CBRE estimates that Chinese investment in overseas commercial properties totaled $6.5 billion in half1 2015
READ MORE... →