Salient to Investors:
Hedge funds et al pushed wagers that bet the yen will fall versus the dollar to the highest since July 2007, versus the median of over 50 analysts who see the yen as flat through Q1, 2014.
Brad Bechtel at Faros Trading said everybody likes dollar-yen higher.
Stan Druckenmiller at Duquesne Capital Mgmt said in September that his firm was short some yen and long some Japanese stocks.
Alan Ruskin at Deutsche Bank said investors should be wary of following the herd, and the more it looks like a sure thing, the less it is a sure thing. Ruskin said external accounts have deteriorated and there is a broader hollowing out of Japanese industry that relates to large foreign-direct investment outflows – previously the bulwark of yen strength is all of a sudden much less constructive.
When hedge funds et al were last this bearish on the yen, in July 2007, it strengthened 3.8 percent, and went on to gain 23 percent the following year, the most since 1987.
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